What Logistics Stock Performance Reveal About the Real Economy in 2025 and the outlook towards 2026
- Tom Mirc
- Dec 9
- 4 min read
If you want to understand the U.S. economy, don’t start with GDP or the jobs report. Start with the companies that actually move goods—parcel carriers, trucking fleets, freight brokers, and global shipping lines. They are the circulatory system of the economy. When they slow, it’s a leading indicator. When they surge, it’s usually real.
ShadowHornet Capital Advisors took a look across 20+ major logistics and shipping companies shows a striking message: the U.S. goods economy is weak, even as global trade continues to hold up surprisingly well. Here’s what the data really shows.
Ticker | Company Name | Market Segment | YTD Performance | 2 Year Performance |
FDX | FedEx | Logistics (Parcel/Freight) | -2.1% | 6.5% |
UPS | United Parcel Service | Logistics (Parcel) | -24.2% | -40.7% |
JBHT | J.B. Hunt Transport Services | Logistics (Truck/Intermodal) | -2.8% | -14.8% |
XPO | XPO Inc. | Logistics (LTL/Brokerage) | 1.4% | 58.4% |
ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Logistics (LTL) | -24.3% | -33.1% |
SAIA | Saia | Logistics (LTL) | -39.0% | -36.5% |
CHRW | C.H. Robinson | Logistics (Brokerage/3PL) | 51.2% | 78.3% |
R | Ryder System | Logistics (Fleet/Leasing) | 8.4% | 50.5% |
EXPD | Expeditors International | Logistics (Global Freight Forwarder) | 32.4% | 14.6% |
WERN | Werner Enterprises | Logistics (Truckload) | -31.4% | -41.8% |
KNX | Knight-Swift | Logistics (Truckload/LTL) | -16.6% | -23.4% |
SNDR | Schneider National | Logistics (Truckload/Intermodal) | -25.8% | -14.0% |
TFII | TFI International | Logistics (Freight/Parcel) | -36.3% | -37.2% |
MATX | Matson | Sea Shipping (Container) | -22.7% | -5.6% |
CMRE | Costamare | Sea Shipping (Container) | 50.0% | 89.5% |
SBLK | Star Bulk | Sea Shipping (Dry Bulk) | 26.8% | -6.0% |
DHT | DHT Holdings | Sea Shipping (Tanker) | 39.0% | 33.9% |
EGLE | Eagle Bulk Shipping | Sea Shipping (Dry Bulk) | #DIV/0! | -47.9% |
ZIM | ZIM Integrated Shipping | Sea Shipping (Container) | -26.3% | 53.5% |
DAC | Danaos Corporation | Sea Shipping (Container) | 16.1% | 29.2% |
GNK | Genco Shipping & Trading | Sea Shipping (Dry Bulk) | 30.4% | 17.1% |
STNG | Scorpio Tankers | Sea Shipping (Product Tankers) | 21.0% | -3.1% |
SEB | Seaboard Corp. | Hybrid (Marine + Agribusiness) | 82.2% | 22.6% |
1. The U.S. Goods Economy Is Soft—And Logistics Companies Are Pricing It In
Across parcel carriers, trucking fleets, and LTL operators, the story is almost uniformly negative:
UPS: –24% YTD, –41% over 2 years
Old Dominion: –24% YTD, –33% over 2 years
Saia: –39% YTD, –36% over 2 years
Werner: –31% YTD, –42% over 2 years
Even FedEx—after aggressive cost cutting—is only slightly above water over two years.
This is not idiosyncratic. It’s macro. What’s driving it?
Soft demand for consumer goods
A multi-year industrial slowdown
Overcapacity in trucking from the 2021–2022 boom
Margin compression across nearly every asset-heavy transportation segment
In short: the U.S. is in a freight recession, whether or not economists want to call it one.
2. But Not Every Corner Is Dark—Brokerage and Forwarders Are Surging
While carriers struggle, asset-light logistics companies are quietly booming:
C.H. Robinson: +51% YTD, +78% over 2 years
Expeditors International: +32% YTD
Ryder: +8% YTD, +50% over two years
Why? Because when capacity is loose and carriers are fighting for volume, brokers and forwarders regain pricing power. Their variable-cost model lets them pivot fast, capture spreads, and expand margins when asset-heavy peers are under pressure.
This is classic down-cycle behavior—and it confirms that the downturn is structural, not temporary.
3. The Global Story Is Very Different: Shipping Markets Are Healthy
Step outside the U.S. domestic market and you see a very different picture.
Tankers (Energy Shipping) Are Booming
DHT: +39% YTD
Scorpio Tankers: +21% YTD
This strength is driven by:
Red Sea diversion (longer routes = higher rates)
Sanction-driven “shadow fleet” fragmentation
Solid global oil demand
It’s one of the clearest signals that the global economy is not in recession.
Container Shipping Is Mixed but Stabilizing
Some players are thriving:
Costamare: +50% YTD, +90% over two years
Danaos: +16% YTD
Others tied more to U.S. import demand (like Matson) are weaker.
But overall, the container market is stabilizing at post-pandemic normals—not collapsing.
Dry Bulk Is Quietly Strengthening
Genco: +30% YTD
Star Bulk: +27%
China and India’s ongoing infrastructure and commodity demand are driving this.
Bottom line: global industrial activity remains healthier than the U.S. domestic picture suggests.
4. The Big Structural Shift: Asset-Heavy Losers, Asset-Light Winners
The performance split aligns neatly with cost structure:
Losing Segments
Parcel carriers
Truckload carriers
LTL fleets
Companies over-exposed to labor and equipment inflation
Winning Segments
Brokers
Freight forwarders
Tanker operators
Charter-heavy container owners
Hybrid agribusiness/marine groups like Seaboard
The market is re-rating the entire logistics sector based on flexibility, variable cost structures, and leverage to trade flows rather than domestic cycles.
This tells us something important about where margins will accrue in the next decade: the more flexible the operating model, the higher the valuation premium.
5. What Does This Say About the 2025–2026 Outlook?
A few macro conclusions are unavoidable:
1. The U.S. goods economy is not strong.
Regardless of official stats, freight markets are flashing yellow.
2. Global trade is healthier than U.S. domestic demand.
Energy and bulk shipping are bright spots.
3. The downcycle is favoring intermediaries, not carriers.
Brokerage, forwarding, and fleet leasing models are winning.
4. Supply chains are rebalancing, not expanding.
This is a normalization era—not an expansion era.
5. For investors and operators, flexibility is the new moat.
The sectors thriving now are structurally lean, network-based, and globally diversified.
Final Takeaway
Logistics stocks are telling a clear story: America’s goods economy is contracting while global trade remains surprisingly resilient.
Asset-heavy fleets are paying the price. Asset-light brokers, forwarders, and tanker operators are capturing the upside.
If you want to gauge economic momentum heading into 2026, ignore the headlines and watch the companies moving the world’s freight. The truth is in the lanes—and right now, those lanes show a U.S. slowdown and a globally bifurcated recovery.