For the Past 2 Years, Public Markets Have Raged Against IT Services. What Are They Telling Us?

Over the past two years, public markets have delivered a brutal verdict on traditional IT services, BPO, and staffing firms. A performance matrix of 20+ listed companies across IT professional services, large- and mid-cap IT, BPO, and staffing/HR shows deep, broad-based drawdowns,  frequently in the 50–80% range over two years, with only a handful of notable exceptions.

This isn’t a routine correction. It looks like a structural repricing of an entire business model.

Below is a synthesis of what the numbers say, and what they likely mean for providers, buyers, and talent in this ecosystem.

Category	Ticker	Company Name	Market / Region	YTD Performance	2 Year Performance
IT Professional Services Proxies	GLOB	Globant	U.S.-listed (Argentina-based, global)	-70.5%	-72.7%
IT Professional Services Proxies	ACN	Accenture	U.S.-listed, Global	-28.7%	-28.3%
IT Professional Services Proxies	IT	Gartner	U.S.-listed	-52.5%	-47.5%
IT Professional Services Proxies	CNDT	Conduent	U.S.-listed	-53.5%	-49.3%
Large-Cap IT Services (U.S.)	CTSH	Cognizant Technology Solutions	U.S.-listed	-1.3%	1.4%
Large-Cap IT Services (U.S.)	EPAM	EPAM Systems	U.S.-listed	-19.8%	-36.9%
Large-Cap IT Services (U.S.)	IBM	IBM Corporation	U.S.-listed	36.8%	86.3%
Large-Cap IT Services (U.S.)	FISV	Fiserv	U.S.-listed	-69.0%	-52.1%
Large-Cap IT Services (U.S.)	FIS	Fidelity National Information Services	U.S.-listed	-19.7%	5.5%
Mid-Cap IT Services (U.S.)	DXC	DXC Technology	U.S.-listed	-35.8%	-44.5%
Mid-Cap IT Services (U.S.)	LDOS	Leidos Holdings	U.S.-listed (Gov/Defense IT)	29.5%	71.8%
Mid-Cap IT Services (U.S.)	CDW	CDW Corporation	U.S.-listed	-17.4%	-36.4%
Smaller IT Services / BPO	CNXC	Concentrix	U.S.-listed	-17.7%	-63.3%
Smaller IT Services / BPO	UIS	Unisys	U.S.-listed	-61.1%	-55.8%
Smaller IT Services / BPO	XRX	Xerox Holdings	U.S.-listed	-67.7%	-85.2%
Staffing & Prof. Services	RHI	Robert Half	U.S.-listed	-60.4%	-68.5%
Similar Staffing/HR Firms	MAN	ManpowerGroup	U.S.-listed	-51.3%	-64.9%
Similar Staffing/HR Firms	KFRC	Kforce	U.S.-listed	-47.0%	-56.2%
Similar Staffing/HR Firms	KELYA	Kelly Services	U.S.-listed	-40.4%	-62.3%
Similar Staffing/HR Firms	TRU	TransUnion	U.S.-listed (HR/credit data)	-9.1%	25.5%
Similar Staffing/HR Firms	NSP	Insperity	U.S.-listed	-56.0%	-72.1%

For those in IT Professional services, its been a 2 year deluge, with few clear winners and a multitude of old-name, old-model losers. Winner-take-most is the name of the game, and those selling human labor haven't been winners...

1. The Data in Plain Terms: A Sector-Wide Drawdown

IT Professional Services: Market Darlings No More

The “proxies” for IT professional services (Globant, Accenture, Gartner, Conduent) have all seen significant declines:

• Globant (GLOB): roughly -70% YTD, -73% over 2 years

• Gartner (IT) and Conduent (CNDT): both down around -50% over 2 years

• Accenture (ACN): less severe, but still about -29% YTD and -28% over 2 years

These are firms that, not long ago, were positioned as high-quality, high-multiple plays on digital transformation. Today, markets are pricing them as if their forward economics have meaningfully deteriorated.

Large-Cap IT Services: A Split Between “Old IT” and “New Playbooks”

Among large-cap IT services names, the story bifurcates:

• IBM is a major outlier: roughly +37% YTD and +86% over 2 years, suggesting strong investor conviction in its hybrid cloud, AI, and mainframe-adjacent strategy.

• Leidos (LDOS) in the mid-cap bucket shows a similar pattern: +30% YTD and +72% over 2 years, grounded in government/defense IT and mission-critical work.

• Cognizant (CTSH) is roughly flat to slightly up over 2 years, implying “meh” sentiment rather than outright pessimism.

• But others — EPAM, FISV, DXC, CDW — show double-digit to high double-digit declines, especially on a 2-year basis.

We’re seeing a clear investor preference for firms deeply tied to mission-critical systems, data, and infrastructure versus more commoditized project-based or staff-augmentation work.

BPO, Smaller IT Services, and Legacy Tech: Hit the Hardest

The smaller IT services/BPO and legacy tech cohort — Concentrix (CNXC), Unisys (UIS), Xerox (XRX) — shows some of the most severe drawdowns:

• Xerox: about -68% YTD, -85% over 2 years

• Unisys: about -61% YTD, -56% over 2 years

• Concentrix: a smaller YTD hit around -18%, but a -63% decline over 2 years 4Q 2025 _ Market Performance Ma…

Markets are essentially saying: the legacy end of IT/BPO is not just out of favor — it may be structurally impaired.

Staffing, HR Services, and Labor-Heavy Models: Deeply Out of Favor

Staffing and HR-oriented service firms are also under heavy pressure:

• Robert Half (RHI): about -60% YTD and -69% over 2 years

• ManpowerGroup (MAN), Kforce (KFRC), Kelly Services (KELYA), Insperity (NSP): all down in the 40–70% range over 2 years.

• One notable exception: TransUnion (TRU), a data/credit-centric player, sits around -9% YTD but +26% over 2 years, reflecting the resilience of data moats over labor-intensive models. 4Q 2025 _ Market Performance Ma…

Collectively, the numbers paint a picture: capital markets are aggressively devaluing business models that depend on selling human hours, while rewarding those that own critical data, infrastructure, or defensible platforms.

2. What the Market Is Really Saying

This isn’t just about higher interest rates or a cyclical slowdown in IT budgets. The pattern across categories points to a deeper shift in how investors view the future cash flows and pricing power of IT services and staffing firms.

A. Labor-Intensive Models Are Being De-Rated

When many of the world’s most established and credible IT services and staffing firms lose 50–80% of their value in two years, the signal is clear:

• Investors believe the earnings power of traditional IT and staffing is at risk.

• The drag is not limited to a few mismanaged companies; it’s sector-wide, suggesting a structural shock rather than idiosyncratic failures.

• AI and automation loom large here: anything that looks like “renting out people by the hour” is assumed to be under long-term margin and pricing pressure.

B. Data, Infrastructure, and Mission-Critical Work Are the New Safe Havens

The few bright spots in the dataset — IBM, Leidos, TransUnion — have something in common:

• Embedded in critical systems (gov/defense, mainframe, core banking, identity/credit data).

• Possess data, IP, or platforms that are hard to displace and can be scaled with software and AI, rather than headcount.

• Are positioned as enablers of automation and AI, not victims of it.

In other words, markets are re-rating toward firms that own the rails and the data, not those that primarily sell human effort.

C. This Is Structural, Not Temporary

The fact that the 2-year performance often mirrors or is even worse than YTD performance suggests:

• This is not a “bad quarter” or a one-off macro wobble — it’s a multi-year repricing.

• Attempts to “wait it out” on the assumption that the market will snap back to 2019-style multiples may be wishful thinking.

Public investors are making a long-duration bet: the old service model won’t command the same valuations again.

3. Implications for Providers, Buyers, and Talent

For Service Providers: You Either Move Up the Value Chain, or Down the Margin Curve

If you’re an IT services, BPO, or staffing firm, this data is a warning shot:

1. “We do digital transformation / IT modernization” is no longer a differentiated value proposition. The proxies for that story — Globant, Accenture, Gartner — are all being repriced downward.

2. The path forward likely requires:

   • Owning outcomes, not hours (e.g., “EBITDA lift,” “fraud losses reduced,” “days-sales-outstanding lowered”).

   • Building IP, repeatable platforms, data assets, or proprietary tools that can be sold at higher gross margins.

   • Vertical specialization where domain knowledge and data give you defensibility: telco, utilities, healthcare, public sector, etc.

3. Firms that fail to evolve may survive, but:

   • They’ll face ongoing price pressure,

   • A tighter labor market for top-tier talent, and

   • Increasing scrutiny from investors and acquirers.

The market is implicitly asking: Are you selling brains and time, or are you selling leverage, outcomes, and defensible IP?

For Corporate and PE Buyers: You Have Pricing Power — Use It Strategically

For CIOs, CFOs, and private equity owners, this environment creates both opportunity and risk:

• Opportunity:

  • You likely have more pricing and contracting leverage than at any time in the last decade.

  • Many providers are under pressure to show revenue and will be aggressive on terms and discounting.

• Risk:

  • A heavily discounted partner may also be a financially fragile partner.

  • Vendor instability—especially in mission-critical systems or BPO functions—can create operational and reputational risk.

Smart buyers will:

• Push providers toward shared-risk / shared-upside models tied to EBITDA, cost reduction, or measurable KPIs.

• Prefer partners with strong balance sheets, clear AI roadmaps, and evidence of IP/platform development, not just low rates.

For Talent: The Era of “Just Billable Hours” Is Ending

For professionals in IT services, consulting, and staffing:

• The market is telling you that generic, horizontal skills tied to traditional project delivery are losing relative value.

• Skills and roles most likely to hold or grow value are those that:

  • Connect tech to financial and operational outcomes,

  • Leverage data, analytics, and automation, and

  • Operate in regulated or complex domains (defense, healthcare, financial services, critical infrastructure).

Career-safe zones increasingly center on owning systems, data, and outcomes, not just executing tasks.

4. The Big Picture: A Business Model Repricing, Not Just a Sector Slump

Looking across the matrix, you could summarize the story like this:

• Human-labor-heavy, project-based models are being structurally de-rated.

• Data-rich, infrastructure-embedded, and outcome-driven models are being rewarded.

• The transition is already well underway — we’re two years into a repricing, not at the beginning of one.

Conclusion

For leaders in this space, the question is no longer, “When will things go back to normal?”

The real question is: How do we re-architect our business so that capital markets see us as an owner of leverage (platforms, data, outcomes), not just a reseller of human time?

Because the numbers are clear: in the public markets, that distinction has already started to determine who sinks, and who quietly climbs.