Fundamental Analysis

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Income Statement:

1. Revenue Growth: Revenue has grown consistently over the periods, reaching $637.96M in 2024, up from $574.79M in 2023, $513.98M in 2022, and $469.82M in 2021. This represents a steady CAGR of approximately 10.7% over the past three years.

2. Gross Profit Improvement: Gross profit increased from $66.32M in 2021 to $124.62M in 2024, showing a strong upward trend. This suggests improved pricing power or cost efficiencies despite rising costs.

3. Operating Income Growth: The company's operating income has experienced exponential growth, particularly:

○ 201.06% increase from 2022 to 2023 ($12.25M → $36.85M)

○ 86.23% increase from 2023 to 2024 ($36.85M → $68.59M) This indicates

strong operational performance, with revenue outpacing expense growth.

4. Net Income Turnaround: The company posted a net loss of $2.72M in 2022 but rebounded strongly:

○ Net income grew to $30.43M in 2023

○ Nearly doubled to $59.25M in 2024

This turnaround reflects improved profitability and strategic management.

5. EBITDA Expansion: EBITDA surged from $38.35M in 2022 to $123.82M in 2024, showing a significant growth in operational efficiency and earnings quality.

Conclusion:

The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and expanding margins over the last three years. The turnaround from a net loss in 2022 to a highly profitable 2024 underscores effective cost management and strategic initiatives driving growth.

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Balance Sheet:

Here are the key findings from the balance sheet analysis:

1. Asset Growth:

○ Total assets increased from $420.55M in 2021 to $624.89M in 2024, a 48.5% growth over three years.

○ This suggests strong expansion, likely due to increased investments, acquisitions, or organic growth.

2. Equity Expansion:

○ Total equity nearly doubled from $138.25M in 2021 to $285.97M in 2024.

○ This indicates strong shareholder value creation through retained earnings and/or capital infusion.

3. Liabilities Growth:

○ Total liabilities rose moderately from $282.30M in 2021 to $338.92M in 2024, a 20% increase.

○ Compared to the growth in assets and equity, the liabilities increase appears well-controlled.

4. Debt Management:

○ Total debt peaked at $140.12M in 2022, then declined to $130.90M in 2024.

○ This reflects improved financial management and potentially reduced reliance

on external debt financing.

5. Working Capital Improvement:

○ In 2022, working capital was negative (-$8.60M), indicating liquidity challenges.

○ However, it improved to $11.44M in 2024, suggesting better cash flow management and short-term financial health.

Overall Conclusion:

The company has exhibited strong balance sheet growth, with expanding assets, controlled liabilities, rising equity, and improving liquidity. Debt levels have been managed effectively, and the sharp improvement in working capital suggests a better ability to meet short-term obligations.

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Statement of Cash Flows:

1. Operating Cash Flow Growth

○ Operating cash flow increased significantly from $46.75M in 2022 to $115.88M in 2024, a 2.5x growth over two years.

○ This suggests improved profitability and operational efficiency, likely due to higher revenue and better cost control.

2. Investing Cash Flow (Capital Expenditures & Expansion)

○ Capital expenditures increased substantially, with cash outflows rising from -$37.60M in 2022 to -$94.34M in 2024.

○ This indicates aggressive reinvestment in assets, infrastructure, or expansion strategies.

3. Financing Cash Flow Trends

○ The company has moved from net financing inflows in 2021 and 2022 to net outflows in 2023 and 2024.

○ The negative -$11.81M financing cash flow in 2024 reflects a focus on debt repayment and reduced reliance on external financing.

4. Cash Position (Liquidity Growth)

○ The end cash position increased from $36.48M in 2021 to $82.31M in 2024, reflecting stronger liquidity and financial stability.

5. Free Cash Flow (Sustainability)

○ Free cash flow turned positive in 2023 and 2024 after being negative in 2021 and 2022.

○ This shift signifies self-sufficiency, meaning the company is now generating enough cash to fund operations and investments without needing additional financing.

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Fundamental Analysis Conclusion

The company has significantly improved cash generation while balancing strategic reinvestment and financial discipline. The strong cash position and positive free cash flow signal healthy liquidity and long-term sustainability.

Fundamental Analysis Summary:

Financial Health, Trends, and Outlook Summary

1. Overall Financial Health: Strong and Improving

The company has demonstrated significant growth in revenue, profitability, and cash flow while maintaining a strong balance sheet. Key indicators suggest enhanced liquidity, improved operational efficiency, and controlled liabilities.

2. Key Trends Observed

Income Statement (Profitability & Growth)

● Revenue has grown consistently, reaching $637.96M in 2024, up 36% from 2021.

● Gross profit margins are expanding, indicating better pricing power or cost efficiencies.

● Operating income surged 201% from 2022 to 2023 and another 86% in 2024, signaling strong earnings growth.

● Net income turned positive in 2023 and nearly doubled in 2024, reflecting sustained profitability.

● EBITDA grew significantly, showing strong operational cash generation.

Balance Sheet (Financial Stability & Capital Structure)

● Total assets increased by 48.5% from 2021 to 2024, indicating expansion and reinvestment.

● Equity nearly doubled, suggesting strong shareholder value creation.

● Debt levels remain stable, with a focus on repayment rather than further borrowing.

● Working capital improved from a deficit in 2022 to a positive $11.44M in 2024, strengthening short-term financial health.

Cash Flow Statement (Liquidity & Capital Efficiency)

● Operating cash flow increased 2.5x from 2022 to 2024, reflecting better cash conversion from earnings.

● Free cash flow turned positive in 2023 & 2024, indicating self-sufficiency without external financing.

● End cash position more than doubled from 2021 ($36.48M) to 2024 ($82.31M), showcasing ample liquidity.

● Investing cash flow increased, pointing to strategic reinvestment in growth initiatives.

3. Outlook & Investment Considerations

Bullish Indicators:

● Strong revenue and earnings momentum, signaling continued business growth.

● Expanding profitability and margins, reflecting operational efficiency.

● Robust cash flow generation enabling future reinvestment and debt reduction.

● Improving liquidity and balance sheet strength, mitigating financial risk.

Potential Risks:

● Heavy capital expenditures, suggesting aggressive expansion that must yield returns.

● Moderate liability growth, which should remain controlled.

● Macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rates and industry cycles, could impact

further growth.

Overall, the company appears well-positioned for sustained growth, backed by increasing profitability, strong cash flow, and disciplined financial management. The security looks promising for investors seeking stable earnings growth and improving financial health.

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Technical Analysis:

Analysis performed: 2/5/2025

Price Projection Date:

3/31/2025

Price Projection:

Projected Stock Price for March 31, 2025

● Current Price: $232.76

● Projected Price (Mean Estimate): $266.13

● Projected Price (Median Estimate): $263.75

● Lower Bound (5% Confidence Level): $216.60 (conservative estimate)

● Upper Bound (95% Confidence Level): $323.13 (optimistic estimate)

Key Insights

• Expected Growth: The stock is projected to increase ~14.3% (mean projection) over the next 48 trading days.

• Potential Risk: There's a 5% probability the price could drop below $216.60, but the

• upper bound suggests a potential rally to $323.13.

• Volatility Factor: Projections are based on historical daily returns and standard deviations. If market conditions remain favorable, the stock has upside potential.

Price Return Projection:

$266.13

Monte Carlo Simulation (10,000 runs):

High Projection: $436.76 (best-case scenario)

Low Projection: $174.88 (worst-case scenario)

Expected Value: $266.13 (most likely projection based on historical trends)

Support and Resistance:

● Pivot Point: $232.11 (key level where price may shift trend)

● Resistance Levels (Upside Targets):

○ R1: $234.09

○ R2: $235.42

○ R3: $237.40

● Support Levels (Downside Protection):

○ S1: $230.78

○ S2: $228.80

○ S3: $227.47

Trading Insight

● Bullish Breakout: If the stock breaks above $234.09 (R1), it may move toward $235.42

(R2) and higher.

● Bearish Breakdown: If the stock falls below $230.78 (S1), it could drop to $228.80 (S2)

or lower.

● The pivot point ($232.11) serves as a critical level for trend confirmation.

Fibonacci Analysis:

Fibonacci Retracement Analysis

Key Fibonacci Levels

● 0% Level (Low): $166.11

● 23.6% Level: $184.14

● 38.2% Level: $195.30

● 50% Level: $204.32 (midpoint, key psychological level)

● 61.8% Level: $213.33 (golden ratio, key resistance/support level)

● 78.6% Level: $226.17 (deep retracement level)

● 100% Level (High): $242.52

Technical Insights

If the stock pulls back, watch for support at:

● $213.33 (61.8%) - This is a critical level where buying interest often re-emerges.

● $204.32 (50%) - Midpoint, where price often stabilizes.

If the stock breaks higher, watch for resistance at:

● $226.17 (78.6%) - A deep retracement level where reversals can occur.

● $242.52 (100%) - A full recovery to recent highs.