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Strategic Advisors

Frontrunning EIA: Projected impact to natural gas injections and storage capacity based on US weather 6/13 - 6/18/2025

Frontrunning EIA: Projected impact to natural gas injections and storage capacity based on US weather 6/13 - 6/18/2025

Projections of impact to Natural Gas injections in storage based on US weather 6/13 - 6/18/2025

Summary Impact of 6/13–6/18 Heat on Natural Gas Storage

Region

Temperature Anomaly

Natural Gas Market Role

Likely Storage Impact

Texas (ERCOT)

+5–10°F above average

Massive power burn + storage region

↓ Injections due to elevated AC demand

Southeast (e.g. AL, GA)

+4–8°F above average

High CDDs + some storage

↓ Injections, higher burn at gas-fired peakers

Midwest (Chicago hub)

+3–6°F above average

Key injection zone

↓ Injections vs avg; CDDs reducing surplus margin

Northeast (NYISO/ISO-NE)

+2–4°F above avg

High residential & commercial demand

Mild decline in injections due to modest burn increase

Southwest (CA, AZ, NV)

+5–12°F above average

CA imports gas from SW storage hubs

↑ electric load = ↓ net exports from SoCal to storage

Pacific Northwest

Slightly above avg

Hydropower dominant

Minor impact on injections; low NG burn

Aggregate U.S. Storage Impact: Net Bullish

  • Net storage injections will likely be lower than seasonal norms for the June 13–20 EIA report.

    • A normal injection for mid-June would be ~90–100 Bcf.

    • Expect actual injections closer to 65–80 Bcf, assuming continued above-normal CDDs and high LNG exports.


Key Market Context

  1. Strong above-average temps boosted electricity demand, particularly for AC—driving up natural gas-fired power burn. naturalgasintel.com+4reuters.com+4wsj.com+4

  2. Pre-report injection forecasts for week ending June 18 ranged from 89 to 111 Bcf (NGI median ≈ 91 Bcf), below the prior streak of triple‑digit builds, signaling early drawdown risk. naturalgasintel.com+1eia.gov+1

  3. Prior to June 6, storage stockpiles were ~109 Bcf above the 5‑yr average injection for that week (109 vs 87 Bcf). But rising temperatures could slow the injection momentum. naturalgasintel.com+2eia.gov+2aga.org+2


Region-by-Region Storage Impact Estimate

Texas (ERCOT)

  • Temp anomalies: +5–10 °F → very high AC load

  • Impacts: Strong reduction in injection volumes, high gas burn for power.

  • Storage effect: Significant dip below average injections; accelerated draw.


Southeast (AL, GA)

  • Temps: +4–8 °F → elevated cooling demand

  • Impacts: Natural gas peaker use increased, lowering injection capacity.

  • Storage: Moderate but clear slowdown in injections.


Midwest (Chicago hub)

  • Temps: +3–6 °F

  • Impacts: Gas use on the rise; injec­tions weaker than typical.

  • Storage: Noticeable reduction vs seasonal baseline.


Northeast (NYISO/ISO‑NE)

  • Temps: +2–4 °F

  • Impacts: Slight bump in residential/commercial gas burn.

  • Storage: Small drop in injection compared to trend.


Southwest (CA/AZ/NV)

  • Temps: +5–12 °F

  • Impacts: Increased electric load, reducing exports from SoCal; heavier imports to storage hubs.

  • Storage: Net storage builds slowed or potentially reversed in outpatient hubs.


Pacific Northwest

  • Temps: Near-normal to mild

  • Impacts: Hydropower remains dominant; minimal gas burn uptick.

  • Storage: Little to no impact.


Nationwide Storage Estimate

Weighted by region and burn profiles:

  • Normal mid‑June injection: ~90–100 Bcf

  • Likely actual injection: ~65–80 Bcf

  • Storage deviation: injections ~20–30 Bcf below average, tightening the supply picture


    Implications for Markets

  • Even a 20 Bcf weekly shortfall can swing the summer storage balance significantly.

  • Front-month Henry Hub futures edged up ~2%, partly due to tightness expectations. energycentral.comreuters.com

  • If heat persists into late June/July, expect continued sub‑normal injections → bullish signals for storage and pricing.

June 17, 2025

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