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Strategic Advisors

Estimated Global Market Share by Oil/Gas Driller as of February 17, 2012

Estimated Global Market Share by Oil/Gas Driller as of February 17, 2012

Backtesting data to aid models in determining how market share correlates to equity prices and forward market activity from Feb 2012 onward

Summary:

I found that an aggregate number of deployed rigs by company was challenging to find.  My goal was to ascertain the market share of the largest oil/gas drillers, so that I can determine effects of the accelerating gas to oil drilling shift currently happening.  (The US Oil to Gas ratio is nearing an all time high at 64%, poised to eclipse 1987, see our January 29th article on this topic!)


From that, I should be able to estimate total market size, anticipated revenues per driller, and from that break down expected EPS using Operating earnings trends.  Having the information will also allow me to better estimate average drilling day-rates, and changes under multiple scenarios.


In order to estimate number of active rigs, I used 80% as a deployed active rate, globally, recognizing there will be some statistical variance amongst drillers.


Findings:


Sources:

Click to access FSR_Feb_2012_02142012_FINAL_1213525.pdf

http://www.diamondoffshore.com/ourFleet/rigStatus.php

Click to access NE_FleetStatus.pdf

http://www.parkerdrilling.com/rig-fleet-and-locations.aspx

Click to access 021612%20Fleet%20Status%20Report%20%28FINAL%29.pdf

http://www.atwd.com/fleet/index.aspxhttp://70.86.132.18/~udi/rig-fleethttp://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Nabors_Industries_%28NBR%29http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=91472http://seekingalpha.com/article/310234-pioneer-drilling-s-ceo-discusses-at-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-global-energy-conference-call-transcriptpatenergy.comhttp://www.hpinc.com/RigFleet.htmlhttp://www.rowancompanies.com/http://www.drillingahead.com/USARigReporthttp://www.ensignenergy.com/_layouts/ensign.rigfinder/rigfinder.aspxhttp://www.unitcorp.com/drillingprofile.htmlhttp://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfmhttp://www.seahawkdrilling.com/investor-relationshttp://www.seadrill.com/


Conclusion:

I’ll build revenue models off of this foundation and post them in March.  More to come…

–Thomas Mirc

February 17, 2012

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